![]() ![]() ![]() One aspect of that work is finding as many near-Earth asteroids as possible - scientists have cataloged more than 26,000 to date, according to NASA. In September of that year, Bennu will swing past Earth - not close enough that there's any risk of an impact, but certainly close enough that Earth's gravity could nudge the asteroid a bit on its path. One factor that scientists were particularly concerned about is called the Yarkovsky effect, which is triggered by the constant temperature fluctuations that occur as regions of the asteroid pass in and out of daylight, gently pushing the asteroid. In addition to factors like these that affect all solar system objects, the team was also able to check the impact of two unusual characteristics of Bennu specifically: the plumes of dust that regularly shoot off the asteroid and the rock's interaction with the spacecraft itself. If the possibility of an asteroid called Bennu slamming into Earth a lifetime from now was keeping you up at night, NASA scientists think you can rest a little easier.Īs a result, scientists behind new research now say they're confident that the asteroid's total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750. This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated.This is the best tl dr I could make, original reduced by 81%. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.ĬAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) - The good news is that scientists have a better handle on asteroid Bennu’s whereabouts for the next 200 years. The bad news is that the space rock has a slightly greater chance of clobbering Earth than previously thought.īut don’t be alarmed: Scientists reported Wednesday that the odds are still quite low that Bennu will hit us in the next century. As a result, scientists behind new research now say theyre confident that the asteroids total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750. This well-preserved, ancient asteroid, known as Bennu, is currently more than 200 million miles (321 million km) from Earth. Scientists previously said that the odds that Bennu would strike the Earth into 2200 was one-in-2,700, but those figures were adjusted to one-in-1,750 into the year 2300, The Associated Press reported. “We shouldn’t be worried about it too much,” said Davide Farnocchia, a scientist with NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, who served as the study’s lead author. While the odds of a strike have risen from 1-in-2,700 to 1-in-1,750 over the next century or two, scientists now have a much better idea of Bennu’s path thanks to NASA’s Osiris-Rex spacecraft, according to Farnocchia. “So I think that overall, the situation has improved,” he told reporters. The spacecraft is headed back to Earth on a long, roundabout loop after collecting samples from the large, spinning rubble pile of an asteroid, considered one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system. That uncertainty remains even in the new and improved models of Bennu’s future path, but with the OSIRIS-REx observations, scientists have been able to drastically reduce their uncertainty about Bennu’s fate … The samples are due here in 2023.Scientists’ patterns of asteroid trajectories always include some degree of uncertainty, as a multitude of forces drag a space rock as it rattles around the inner solar system. However, despite the best efforts of scientists, predicting Bennu’s course after 2135 is still difficult. Within that time period, the most concerning date is Sept. In September of that year, Bennu will swing past Earth, not close enough not to risk an impact, but certainly close enough for Earth’s gravity to push the asteroid a little in its path. 24, 2182 even on that day, Bennu’s impact probability is only 1 in 2,700. Beyond Bennu Of course, Bennu isn’t the only space rock that scientists worry about. Planetary defense is dedicated to identifying all asteroids that could potentially impact Earth in a meaningful way. The precision with which that dance takes place will shape Bennu’s trajectory over the next decades and centuries. Meghan Bartels, “Scientists fine-tune the odds of asteroid Bennu hitting Earth until 11pm with the help of the NASA spacecraft” on (11 August 2021)Ī paper discussing Osiris Rex’s findings is open access. NASA can use Osiris-RExs observations to fine-tune their understanding of. So far, NASA has cataloged 26,000 asteroids near Earth. Sure, Bennu only has a smidgen of a chance to hit Earth, but NASA would like. ![]() An asteroid is believed to have wiped out dinosaurs and many other types of life 66 million years ago. ![]()
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